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The January 28 special election runoff for Texas House District 28 (HD-28) will provide an important signal about the feasibility of the Democratic Party flipping the Texas House in 2020. And, if Democrats flip the Texas House, the probability of the GOP flipping the U.S. House during the next decade will decrease.
Democratic control of the Texas House has significant national implications. With Democrats controlling the House, Republicans, who will have a 100 percent lock on the Texas Senate and governorship in 2021, would be unable to draw tailor-made congressional districts in 2021. This in turn would prevent Republicans from engaging in the partisan gerrymandering needed to retain control of a disproportionate number of the state’s 38 or 39 (up from 36) districts during the 2023-2032 period.
And, as the U.S. House GOP caucus’s largest state delegation (now 23 strong, followed by Florida at 14), as goes the Texas GOP delegation, so goes the House GOP caucus. That’s because the likelihood of a GOP U.S. House majority decreases without a Texas-sized delegation from the Lone Star State.
HD-28 is located southwest of Houston in suburban Fort Bend Country. Its population of 160,000 has become increasingly diverse, with the citizen voting age population presently 51 percent white, 17 percent Latino, 16 percent Asian American and 15 percent African American. In 2016 Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpWarren: Dershowitz presentation 'nonsensical,' 'could not follow it' Bolton told Barr he was concerned Trump did favors for autocrats: report Dershowitz: Bolton allegations would not constitute impeachable offense MORE defeated Hillary Clinton
Hillary Diane Rodham ClintonDershowitz: Bolton allegations would not constitute impeachable offense Hillicon Valley — Presented by Philip Morris International — NFL social media accounts hacked | Dem questions border chief over controversial Facebook group | Clinton says Zuckerberg has 'authoritarian' views Clinton on Sanders comments: 'I wasn't thinking about the election' MORE by 10 percentage points in HD-28, while the baseline GOP margin of victory in the district was 20 percent. In 2018 Republican Sen. Ted Cruz
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